In this video, John Cox, CFA®, CAIA, Chief Economist, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Waverly Advisors, provides an economic update covering the key developments shaping the markets and economy as we move through the second half of 2026. John opens with a candid read on the current economic landscape — mixed signals from leading indicators, but no near-term signs of recession. He walks through the most recent jobs report, which reflected a loss of approximately 20,000 positions along with downward revisions to prior months, signaling a clear slowdown in the labor market after a stronger start to the year. He notes that despite the softening, unemployment remains historically low at around 4.1%, and the economy continues to add jobs on a monthly basis.
John also covers the inflation outlook, noting that price pressures appear to have peaked and stabilized in the 2.5–3.5% range — still above the Fed’s comfort zone, but with the potential for improved readings in the weeks ahead. He discusses the ongoing economic drag from the U.S.-Iran conflict, now approaching the six-month mark, and its continued effect on consumer spending through elevated energy costs. He then reviews second quarter GDP, manufacturing activity — currently near four-year highs — and the latest Federal Reserve meeting, in which the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to hold rates steady. John explains the significance of three dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike and what that could mean for Fed policy heading into the September, October, and December meetings. He closes with commentary on equity and bond market performance year-to-date, the historically volatile period leading up to the November 3rd midterm elections, and what investors might expect once the election uncertainty clears.
This video was recorded on Sunday, August 10, 2026.