John Cox Monthly Economic Market Update – June 2026
John B. Cox
June 26, 2026
In this video, John Cox, CFA®, CAIA, Chief Economist, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Waverly Advisors, provides an economic update covering the key developments shaping the markets and economy heading into the second half of 2026. John opens with a review of the ongoing impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on global energy markets, explaining how oil prices have eased from the $90–$100 range back toward $75 per barrel following a recent ceasefire and a 60-day memorandum of understanding an agreement intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring further relief to oil and gas prices. He discusses how gas prices at the pump have declined from approximately $4.50 to around $4 per gallon, offering a modest lift to consumer sentiment and spending, while noting that inflation outside the energy sector has remained stubbornly in the 3–3.5% range, above the Fed’s preferred target.
John also covers the Federal Reserve policy outlook under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose first policy meeting revealed a split among officials — nine expecting rate hikes by year-end and nine anticipating rates to hold steady. He then reviews the broader economic picture, including improved job growth averaging approximately 190,000 new positions per month over recent months, GDP growth accelerating from 1.6% in Q1 toward a projected 3% pace in Q2, and S&P 500 corporate earnings growth exceeding 20% in 2026. John concludes with commentary on the historically challenging market environment surrounding midterm elections — now roughly five months away — and the current quarter’s strong, broad-based market rally spanning small- and mid-cap stocks, value-oriented sectors such as materials, industrials, and REITs, and international markets including emerging markets, while noting the bond market’s relative underperformance and an improved forward-looking outlook for fixed income.
Music Credit:
Song: Olif — Be Yourself
Music provided by Vlog No Copyright Music.
Video Link: https://bit.ly/3u2ON9O
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The information presented in this document is for general informational and educational purposes and is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. Nothing in this document constitutes, or shall be relied upon as, investment, legal, or tax advice to any person. The information in this document is provided effective as of the date of its publication, does not necessarily reflect the most current status or development, and is subject to revision at any time. Investing involves risk, and past performance does not necessarily predict future results. None of Waverly, or any of its officers, members, or affiliates, in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action that anyone may take in reliance on any statements or recommendations in this document.
Waverly Advisors, LLC (“Waverly”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser. A copy of Waverly’s current written disclosure brochure and Form CRS (Customer Relationship Summary), discussing our advisory services and fees, remains available at https://waverly-advisors.com/. You should not assume that any information provided serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Waverly Advisors, LLC (“Waverly”). This information should be used as a reference only. Talk to your Waverly advisor, or a professional advisor of your choosing, for guidance specific to your situation. Please note: The scope of the services to be provided depends upon the needs of the client and the terms of the engagement.
John Cox Monthly Economic Market Update – June 2026
In this video, John Cox, CFA®, CAIA, Chief Economist, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Waverly Advisors, provides an economic update covering the key developments shaping the markets and economy heading into the second half of 2026. John opens with a review of the ongoing impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on global energy markets, explaining how oil prices have eased from the $90–$100 range back toward $75 per barrel following a recent ceasefire and a 60-day memorandum of understanding an agreement intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring further relief to oil and gas prices. He discusses how gas prices at the pump have declined from approximately $4.50 to around $4 per gallon, offering a modest lift to consumer sentiment and spending, while noting that inflation outside the energy sector has remained stubbornly in the 3–3.5% range, above the Fed’s preferred target.
John also covers the Federal Reserve policy outlook under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose first policy meeting revealed a split among officials — nine expecting rate hikes by year-end and nine anticipating rates to hold steady. He then reviews the broader economic picture, including improved job growth averaging approximately 190,000 new positions per month over recent months, GDP growth accelerating from 1.6% in Q1 toward a projected 3% pace in Q2, and S&P 500 corporate earnings growth exceeding 20% in 2026. John concludes with commentary on the historically challenging market environment surrounding midterm elections — now roughly five months away — and the current quarter’s strong, broad-based market rally spanning small- and mid-cap stocks, value-oriented sectors such as materials, industrials, and REITs, and international markets including emerging markets, while noting the bond market’s relative underperformance and an improved forward-looking outlook for fixed income.
This video was recorded on June 23, 2026
For important disclosures, please visit: https://waverly-advisors.com/otherimportantdisclosure
Music Credit:
Song: Olif — Be Yourself
Music provided by Vlog No Copyright Music.
Video Link: https://bit.ly/3u2ON9O
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The information presented in this document is for general informational and educational purposes and is not specific to any individual’s personal circumstances. Nothing in this document constitutes, or shall be relied upon as, investment, legal, or tax advice to any person. The information in this document is provided effective as of the date of its publication, does not necessarily reflect the most current status or development, and is subject to revision at any time. Investing involves risk, and past performance does not necessarily predict future results. None of Waverly, or any of its officers, members, or affiliates, in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action that anyone may take in reliance on any statements or recommendations in this document.
Waverly Advisors, LLC (“Waverly”) is an SEC-registered investment adviser. A copy of Waverly’s current written disclosure brochure and Form CRS (Customer Relationship Summary), discussing our advisory services and fees, remains available at https://waverly-advisors.com/. You should not assume that any information provided serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Waverly Advisors, LLC (“Waverly”). This information should be used as a reference only. Talk to your Waverly advisor, or a professional advisor of your choosing, for guidance specific to your situation. Please note: The scope of the services to be provided depends upon the needs of the client and the terms of the engagement.
Investment advisory services are offered by Waverly Advisors, LLC, an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. © 2024 Waverly Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved.
For more information about our disclosure.
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John is the Chief Economist at Waverly Advisors. He is also a Partner of the firm and a Wealth Advisor.
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