Monthly Economic Market Update September 2026

In this video, John Cox, CFA®, CAIA, Chief Economist, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Waverly Advisors, provides an economic update covering the key developments shaping the markets and economy heading into the final stretch of 2026. John leads with the most significant recent news regarding the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2023, a unanimous quarter-point increase driven by persistent inflation running above the Fed’s target. He explains why this is unlikely to be a one-and-done move, with additional hikes possible at the December meeting and into early 2027, depending on incoming inflation data.

John also covers the notable rise in the ten-year Treasury yield, which briefly exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007, and what a sustained move higher could mean for mortgage rates, consumer lending, and the broader economy. He then turns to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict — now seven months in — with oil prices returning to the $90–$100 range and diesel fuel hitting all-time highs, adding upward pressure to goods prices and inflation. He also touches on recent U.S.-Canada trade friction and the lingering effects of tariff policy from 2025 following Supreme Court rulings earlier this year.

On the positive side, John highlights third quarter GDP growth currently trending near 5%, a blowout August jobs report that came in roughly 100,000 above expectations, and corporate earnings on pace for profit growth of approximately 30% in 2026 — with a strong 2027 outlook as well. He closes with a look at year-to-date equity market performance — up more than 10% — broad-based strength across emerging markets, small-cap, and value stocks, and the historically positive market environment that tends to follow midterm elections on November 3rd.

This video was recorded on Wednesday, September 17, 2026.